Much like the roller coasters it is home to, the real estate market in Central Florida takes homeowners on a wild ride. A lot of people ask me what my take is on the current market, and I thought I’d share what I tell them.
Prices have been relatively flat for the last year.
2026 might see declining prices for our area. Realtor.com projects home prices in the eight largest metros in Florida will fall by an average of 1.9% in 2026. Orlando is expected to decrease by 1.6%, although much of that decline is due to a drop in condo prices driven by state rules governing HOAs. I’m looking at listings all day, and most sellers reduce prices before getting a contract.
A big-time buyer’s market is here to stay.
Sellers concede more as buyers demand lower than the list price, as well as hefty seller contributions to their closing costs. And buyers negotiate hard with detailed inspections, followed by expectations that the seller adjust the price or finish work before closing. Strict insurance requirements also push buyers to ask for more. Some of my listings this spring required a lot of negotiation between seller and buyer over condition issues.
Competition from builders at price points above $375,000.
Builders offer all kinds of incentives, especially lower interest rates. And, as I said above, buyers are shopping hard. If you’re a seller trying to sell a newer home in a subdivision where homes are still being built, it’s especially tough.
Migration to Central Florida has decreased from the Covid peak.
Most counties in the state still have positive migration, but the lack of affordability has hit Florida hard. According to Yahoo Finance, our homeowner’s insurance prices are the highest in the country. In some counties, they doubled in the last five years. Younger and middle-income buyers are seeking out more affordable states to buy their first homes.
Interest rates probably aren’t going anywhere for the rest of the year.
Despite changes in leadership at the Fed this spring, mortgage rates aren’t coming down anytime soon. Inflation, driven of course by the cost of gasoline, is running at about 3.8%. A bench-rate cut would add fuel to the inflation fire.
If you’re a buyer, this is a great time to buy in Central Florida.
The realities of the market might seem like a lot of doom and gloom, but it opens opportunities for buyers. Get pre-qualified for a mortgage, get your cash together, and go shopping. Ask for repairs and closing costs, some of which can be used to buy down your interest rate. And be open to some options that aren’t a single-family home. Some of the best deals out there are condos and townhomes.
